Economist Kelvin Chisanga says Zambia’s economic stability remains promising but fragile as the country heads toward the August 2026 general elections and the conclusion of the Eighth National Development Plan (8NDP).
Chisanga said recent macroeconomic gains such as currency stability, easing inflation, improved fiscal discipline, and restored international confidence are encouraging but remain heavily dependent on sound policy implementation.
He noted that the main threat to this progress is not political competition itself, but the risk of policy slippages triggered by election-related spending pressures.
Chisanga explained that history has shown how unplanned expenditures, subsidy expansions, arrears accumulation, and delayed reforms can quickly erode hard-won economic stability.
He warned that any weakening in fiscal discipline could lead to rising inflation expectations, increased domestic borrowing costs, and renewed pressure on the exchange rate.
This, he said, would undermine investor confidence and slow down private sector activity at a critical stage of economic recovery.
In a statement, Friday, Chisanga said the transition period demands a reprioritisation of budget targets, strict adherence to spending ceilings, and the preservation of the Bank of Zambia’s operational independence.
He stressed that social protection, education, health, and skills development must be safeguarded as essential investments rather than treated as optional costs.
Chisanga also underscored the importance of articulating a credible successor to the 8NDP, anchored on macroeconomic discipline, export-led growth, value addition, and private-sector-driven job creation.
He believes that if managed prudently, the 2026 elections could consolidate ongoing reforms and mark Zambia’s transition from recovery to durable, inclusive growth.
