Economist Kelvin Chisanga says the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) decision to raise Zambia’s economic growth forecast to 5.8 percent signals that the country is moving beyond economic recovery into a period of broad-based expansion.
Commenting on the revised IMF outlook, Chisanga said the improved forecast reflects stronger economic fundamentals and growing confidence in Zambia’s economy following reforms in key sectors.
Agriculture Rebound Driving Economic Growth
According to Chisanga, one of the biggest contributors to Zambia’s improved growth outlook is the recovery of the agricultural sector after the severe drought experienced in previous seasons.
He noted that improved agricultural production has restored rural incomes, increased food supply, and created positive effects across other sectors of the economy.
“The IMF’s upward revision of Zambia’s growth outlook to 5.8% is a clear signal and an indication that the economy is transitioning from the recovery process to broad-based expansion,” Chisanga said.
He explained that the rebound in agriculture has strengthened economic activity through trade, transport logistics, and manufacturing.
Improved Economic Fundamentals Boost Confidence
Chisanga also attributed the IMF’s optimistic outlook to Zambia’s strengthening macroeconomic fundamentals.
He said significant progress made in public debt restructuring, debt rebalancing, and fiscal discipline has improved policy credibility while boosting investor confidence.
According to the economist, stabilising inflation and stronger foreign exchange reserves have also contributed to creating a more predictable economic environment.
He noted that these developments have helped unlock productive investments, particularly in the mining, services, and export sectors.
Growth No Longer Driven by Mining Alone
Unlike previous periods when Zambia’s economy depended largely on mining, Chisanga believes the current growth pattern is more balanced.
He said positive performance is now being recorded simultaneously across agriculture, industry, and the services sector.
“What makes the current growth episode more meaningful and impactful is its broad-based nature, with both primary and secondary sectors pushing positive numbers,” he said.
According to Chisanga, this diversification makes Zambia’s economic growth more sustainable and resilient.
Inclusive Growth Remains the Biggest Challenge
Despite the positive outlook, Chisanga cautioned that economic growth alone is not enough unless it translates into better livelihoods for ordinary Zambians.
He said the country’s biggest challenge now is ensuring that growth creates employment opportunities and improves household incomes.
“The key challenge ahead is ensuring that this growth is inclusive and should trickle down through employment-driven effects,” he said.
Sustaining Economic Momentum
Looking ahead, Chisanga said Zambia will need to maintain prudent economic policies to sustain the current growth momentum.
He identified several priorities, including:
Continued fiscal discipline.
Stable energy supply.
Climate resilience in agriculture.
Greater export diversification.
Increased value addition across key sectors of the economy.
He argued that focusing on these areas would strengthen Zambia’s long-term economic resilience while creating more opportunities for businesses and workers.
IMF Optimism Reflects Economic Progress
The IMF’s revised 5.8 percent growth forecast comes as Zambia continues implementing economic reforms aimed at restoring fiscal stability, attracting investment, and promoting sustainable economic development.
Chisanga believes the revised projection sends a positive message to both local and international investors that Zambia’s economy is steadily strengthening.
However, he stressed that maintaining the current momentum will require continued commitment to sound economic management and policies that ensure the benefits of growth are shared across the population.