*OPINION POLLS ARE NEVER ACCURATE IN ZAMBIA; MOSTLY-ALWAYS FALSE** .
By Muhabi Lungu
5th January, 2026
Dr Mwelwa’s article entitled ” *From 52% to Shock: How Numbers Once Fooled PF- and Could Fool UPND Again* ” is totally accurate. His article inspired me to further support his arguments with additions of my own. His observations are totally supported by all our collective political experiences over the years. Although the use of numbers and percentages in any argument is desirable and powerful, such figures and percentages that emanate from opinion polls, in Zambia, have proved extremely faulty and totally unreliable. This has usually been at the detriment of those who commissioned the undertaking of the Poll.
*The Inherent Problem with Opinion Polls in Zambia*
Unlike Numerical Trend Analysis, Opinion Polls in Zambia are usually way, **WAY OFF THE MARK* …Why is this so? This is because of two cardinal reasons that have historically been baked into the Zambian mindset. The first reason is that Zambian voters, rarely ( many would say NEVER) reveal their true perspectives to pollsters about their genuine thoughts, opinions or intentions. This is so, especially when they detect an involvement of a governing party; and they have become very good at detecting and smelling the most minute scent of involvement from a party in government.
History has taught them that you can be severely punished by the State for your honesty, beat down and even lose your Job, business or client due to your legitimate answer to your Boss, Customer or contractor. Zambians are constantly in survival mode and rarely let their guard down in this respect. A disliked answer by the questioner could lead to financial ruin and possibly jail and broken homes, for most people.
The second reason is as a result of inexperienced pollsters and/ or dishonest enumerators that begin with a pre – determined conclusion and outcome. Sometimes, this predetermination is at a very subliminal level that the pollster is often unaware of the biase and truly believes in the data capture process. The methodology of obtaining data, other information related to geographical, demographical and other control data, is largely tilted towards meeting the intended outcome.
Many times, the Pollster is already in tune with what the contracting party wants to achieve. There are other times, where there is just outright dishonesty which is intended to influence the undecided voter to swing a particular way. In other words, to deliberately create a false narrative in hope that more supporters will be dupped to shift towards the direction of the Poll. Most voters, however, are quite aware of this political deception. In fact, they have become quite adept and very good at deceiving the deceiver.
*Zambian Voters are Extremely Alert at the Machinations of their Politicians* .
It is extremely difficult in Zambia for the party in government to get an accurate projection of the vote. That is why UNIP, MMD and PF all thought they were going to win. YET, it was clear to the rest of “US.” Those who were at a distance could easily see that the bombshell was about to explode. UNIP was completely unable to see that the majority of Zambians wanted change. Although I was MMD, my father was in very close proximity to KK and State House in 1991 and all my arguments about UNIP losing went totally disputed, until it was too late.
My warnings, about possible trouble, as part of RB’s Presidential Campaign Committee in 2011 ( and even before the team was composed) were dismissed by “the so called experts.” Some of them were foreign experts who had handled “many successful elections in Europe.” Some individuals, who I knew very well, even tried to turn RB against me by impugning sinister motives on my part.
In late 202O and early 2021, when I picked up serious quicksand information-, trend analysis and what I regarded as extremely reliable data, I tried to share my concerns. However, senior PF and Intelligence Officers, upon sharing my observations with them, sternly warned me that I should never express these observations to other Senior PF or Government Officials. That I would be terribly misunderstood and might be recalled from the Diplomatic Service, as being a supporter of the UPND.
This time, and since I was out of the country, was a civil servant and was not an active member of any political party, I uncharacteristically backed down and shut my mouth. The outcome is known and has been well explained by Dr Mwelwa. In many ways, the impending defeat of the PF was quite clear to those who were at a distance from the party and government. In this case, distance usually creates clarity rather than the double vision and haze of proximity.
*Self- Deceptions Also Affect Many Opposition Political Parties* .
Political Parties in the opposition are equally victims of false Opinion Poll data. Unfortunately, for opposition political parties, this false data usually goes beyond opinion polls. Even the regular information being shared to them about their chances of victory and general support base is usually inaccurate.
Most opposition leaders are quite gullible and easily become convinced, *beyond a shadow of doubt* , by their supporters. Those closest to us will provide uplifting information for the usual obvious benefit or for fear that we might quit and hence stop the gravy train.
Our ordinary voters too, have become so sophisticated at not wanting to offend us pretentious presidential candidates. Their answer is never or rarely truthful. The answer is usually positive and in affirmation of what they think you want to hear. As I earlier shared, Zambians are now constantly in survival mode; instinctively.
*Clientel Relationship between Great Leader and Great Supporter*
There is a cadre of experienced political “hackers” who have become experts at making political party leaders feel larger than life. They play on ‘our’ psychological desire to be adored, exploit our need for external validation and manipulate our self-perceived exceptionality in comparison “to the rest of the ordinary folks.” All too often, our political praise -singers are accurately tuned to the frequency of our vanity.
Due to these complex relationships between the leader and the followers, opposition leaders are totally convinced of victory, when in fact, they don’t have a “Chance in Hell.”
Surprisingly, it is often that many opposition leaders can correctly discern and dismiss the likelihood of their competitors in other opposition leaders as being useless, without a support base and delusional. YET, for some inexplicable reason, these same opposition ” Giants” completely fail to see these shortcomings and accurate assessments about themselves. This has always puzzled me.
As it has been pointed out elsewhere before, this ability to point at the ” *spec in your brother’s eye and ignore to see it or fail to feel the log in your own eye* ” is incrediblly difficult for many of us to understand… Yet the supporters would quickly and convincingly say, “Ndimwe Chabe Boss. *Bonse aba ni ba ngwele* .” Most of us, in the opposition with severely inflated egos (Pompous), never learn, until it’s too late.
*Actual Numbers for HH and the UPND*
Dr Mwelwa’s article was inspired by a report that HH and the UPND have a 75% Opinion Poll lead while the opposition, combined, have 25%. As argued in this article, Opinion Polls in Zambia are never accurate. In fact, believing in them is like living in a “Fools Paradise” The sad thing is that, No Matter what one says or whatever empirical evidence one provides, very few interested parties will believe that they are not popular; especially when one is in Government.
At this point, I should point out, however, that there are very credible and extremely reliable methods that can be used to ascertain the real level of support base of a party in government. This is equally the case with parties in the opposition. In regard to the governing party, those methods indicate that HH and the UPND have been hovering at between *38% to 43% of the electoral vote* for the past 12 months.
*Lack of Consolidation of the Majority Vote is a Danger to us all* .
The remaining support base of between 57% to 62% in opposition is not at the moment consolidated. In fact a significant percentage of this range has no particular preference on any opposition political party or specific national Leader. The large majority of this group is quite clear that they don’t want to vote for UPND.
In this group are also those who regard themselves as independents or NEUTRALS that might swing to the party in government because of lack of a credible voice elsewhere. This group could equally decide to stay away from voting in the next elections. Apathy, lack of enthusiasm or low voter turnout usually favours the party in government. This would be heartbreaking for many of us.
Put in another way, if this lack of consolidation does not happen soon, the advantage will be to the UPND. The opposition will divide the vote and carelessly provide an open goal to their opponent or an own goal by themselves. This would be extremely tragic for Zambia’s future. If this happens, historians, will in future be writing about how Zambian Multi-Party Democracy lasted only for 35 years, from 1991 to 2026. How dangerously irresponsible we will have been.
Muhabi Lungu
Secretary General
The Zambia We Want(ZWW), a member of
We’re One Zambia Alliance ( *WOZA* )
