Economist Kelvin Chisanga has observed that Zambia’s economic performance in Q1 2026 reflects a gradual but fragile recovery.
Chisanga highlighted that growth is estimated at around 5.0%–5.2%, driven by mining expansion, improved electricity supply and resilience in services.
He noted that inflation declined from 9.4% in January to about 7.1% in March, moving toward the 6–8% target range, allowing the policy rate to ease to around 13.5%.
The Economist emphasised that the Kwacha showed relative stability, appreciating by an estimated 3%–5% on average, supported by improved forex inflows, although trade volumes contracted by about 6%, highlighting external vulnerabilities.
Chisanga pointed out that cost of living pressures remain high, especially food prices, limiting household purchasing power.
He stressed that lending rates remain above 20%, constraining private sector growth, while fiscal pressures and election-related spending risks threaten stability.
The Economist remarked that overall, Q1 signals macroeconomic stabilisation with weak household transmission, requiring fiscal discipline, diversification and targeted cost-of-living interventions.