By Francis Chipalo
State House Chief Communications Strategist Whitney Mulobela says geopolitical instability in the Middle East has pushed up fuel prices in Zambia, with Brent crude now trading at about US$112 per barrel, about 73 percent higher than a year ago.
Mulobela said attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20 percent of the world’s crude oil passes, have disrupted supply chains at a time when Zambia imports all of its refined petroleum products.
“Government knows what this means at home: the higher bus fare, the marketeer paying more to move produce, the transporter whose full tank eats into the day’s takings. After October’s K6 increase and this month’s adjustment, the squeeze is real and the frustration is legitimate,” he stated.
Mulobela said from April to September this year, government suspended excise duty on fuel and zero-rated Value Added Tax (VAT), measures which together with the Energy Regulation Board (ERB) price-smoothing mechanism kept local pump prices in the K25 to K28 range.
The veteran coms officer said the relief, which cost Treasury about US$200 million in foregone revenue, saw prices even falling in August and kept Zambia among countries with the lowest fuel prices in SADC and COMESA. During the period, diesel stocks were maintained at about 60 days of national cover.
The State House official explained that the relief was premised on the return of global stability, which did not materialise, forcing government to choose between sustaining an open-ended fuel subsidy and protecting social sector programmes such as Free Education, the Constituency Development Fund (CDF), the School Feeding Programme and Social Cash Transfer.
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Excise duty was reintroduced in October while VAT is scheduled to return on 1st December on a phased basis. The ERB’s November review pegged petrol at K33.06 per litre and diesel at K34.45.
Mulobela said despite the increases, Zambia remains comparatively lower than some regional peers.
In kwacha equivalent at about K20 to a US dollar, petrol in Malawi is about K65 per litre, Zimbabwe about K41, South Africa about K37, Zambia K33.06, Namibia about K32, Tanzania about K31, Mozambique about K30 and Botswana about K29 with levies suspended. On diesel, Zambia’s K34.45 is below South Africa’s K39-K40, Mozambique’s K37 and Malawi’s K68.
Mulobela disclosed that President Hakainde Hichilema has directed a review of the ERB’s monthly pricing mechanism, telling Parliament on 9th October that frequent changes make it difficult for families to budget and businesses to plan.
“Personally, I don’t like it,” President Hichilema was quoted as saying.
On the creation of a stand-alone Ministry of Petroleum, Mulobela said the 28th October split of the Energy Ministry, with Peter Kapala in charge of Electricity and Makozo Chikote leading Petroleum, was meant to give fuel a dedicated focus.
He listed the new ministry’s priorities as the construction of the US$1.1 billion, 60,000-barrels-per-day Ndola refinery expected to be completed before the end of 2028, the 1,400km Angola-Zambia pipeline from Lobito to Lusaka where Zambia holds a 26 percent stake in the Lobito refinery, fuel blending to support local ethanol and the directive for government institutions to procure only electric vehicles.
Zambia spent US$2.11 billion on refined fuel imports in 2024, according to official data.
Mulobela added that while government cannot control conflicts in the Gulf, it will continue to cushion citizens where fiscal space allows and build long-term infrastructure to reduce exposure to global shocks.
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