Economist Kelvin Chisanga is concerned that instability in the Middle East will weigh heavily on Zambia’s fuel pricing.
In a statement, Chisanga remarked that the region supplies nearly a third of global crude oil, with a fifth of traded volumes passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
He observed that any disruption involving Saudi Arabia or Iran tends to push Brent Crude benchmarks higher.
The Economist explained that a rise from US$75 to US$95 per barrel would significantly raise Zambia’s import costs.
Chisanga highlighted that fuel contributes between 35–45% of pump prices, meaning increases could reach 5–10% depending on Kwacha stability.
He further noted that a 5% depreciation of the Kwacha could push the burden to 10–15%, affecting transport and food distribution.
The Economist stressed that prolonged disruption with Brent above US$100 per barrel would exert immense pressure on Zambia’s inflation outlook.
