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WHY HH MAY LOSE THE 2026 ELECTION

By Dr Sishuwa Sishuwa

If Hakainde Hichilema loses power in 2026, these five factors, stated in no order of importance, may contribute significantly to such a likely outcome:

• the bad influence of external actors (largely extractive and oblivious to the domestic context) on his leadership and key developments in the country and the region. Blacks who work closely with Hichilema say the president is largely unreceptive to advice unless it comes from some in North America and Europe or their overseas representatives in #Zambia and a particular few in South Africa. I hope Hichilema will soon wake up to the realisation that for many Western actors and their agents, liberal democracy is simply the entry point for securing their vital and strategy interests.

• the failure to tackle high-level corruption, especially in Hichilema’s administration, and continued interference by State House officials (especially one presidential aide) in the fight against the scourge (of corruption). Among those reported to be involved in grand corruption are very senior government officials and close business associates of the president, including one of Indian descent and three others. History shows that private interests contributed to the downfall of Hichilema’s predecessor.

• the cost-of-living crisis and dire youth unemployment, worsened by an elitist, insensitive and out-of-touch approach to leadership, one that priorities the needs of foreigners, the rich, and the educated. Poor people – struggling to afford basic needs – are estranged from this government, whose topmost priorities, according to latest official remarks from Solicitor General Marshal Muchende, include “creating a number of millionaires in Zambia from genuinely earned income”!

• the failure to reflect adequate ethnic diversity in public appointments, which has fed growing public perception that Hichilema appears to see himself primarily as the leader of Zambians from one half of the country. The quiet but ongoing harassment of civil servants who trace their ethnic origins from the other half has not helped the situation.

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• the unity and viability of opposition parties including their ability to articulate an alternative vision that resonates with the concerns of majority voters and to forego personal ambitions and field a common – and credible – presidential candidate.